Indonesia presidential race (updated a)

Indonesia presidential race (various updates):

http://khorreports-palmoil.blogspot.com/2014/06/indonesia-presendial-race.html

 

Advert: Indonesia policy platform - crucial key text for business investors. Do you need to better understand the policy platform of the incoming Indonesia Jokowi-JK administration?

• Secondary sources and analysis are important and handy but they can inject bias. Their often limited coverage may also miss nuance and overall perspective. In the course of our own research and analysis on Indonesia policy ideas for the next 10 years (assume two terms) we have encountered big gaps and tonal differences in regular sources and even more so against the original policy text. We were surprised at the differences and you may be too. Although campaign policy ideas may shift, it is important to understand the platform of the incoming presidency as policy ideas invariably reappear.
• Businesses investing and trading with Indonesia will crucially benefit from access to primary Bahasa policy sources presented in English. Since we did a translation of the policy manifesto (and it's proven pretty tough to find one done), we thought to disseminate it to others who may need it at a reasonable fee.
• You get:  i) a full English translation of the Jokowi-JK "visi misi / vision mission" policy platform (original version, 41 pages in Bahasa) and ii) for the first ten early birds, a free supplement : upcoming review (release date to set) of priority Jokowi-JK policy items from the 5 Presidential Debates and statements from Jokowi-JK and key advisors during the early transition period.
• Sectors that will find this of interest include: financial, oil & gas, green energy and technology, logistics and infrastructure, agricultural supply chains, mining, forestry, rural development and more.
• Please contact Deborah at deborah.segienam[at]gmail.com for orders and info.

30 July 2014: Jokowi goes online for Cabinet by Sita W. Dewi and Yuliasri Perdani, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta | Headlines | Fri, July 25 2014, 8:36 AM; "... Social media played a major role in his presidential-election victory and now president-elect Joko “Jokowi” Widodo has embraced the same tool to recruit his ministers. At the same time he is easing pressure from those seeking places in the Cabinet and attempting to win over his opponents... Amid rumors and media speculation about his Cabinet choices after he is sworn in as president on Oct. 20, Jokowi and his team have produced an online poll called “People’s Choice for an Alternative Cabinet” published on jokowicenter.com.... In the survey, the team is putting forward three different names for each ministerial post in a Cabinet of 34 ministers. The poll also provides an option should respondents wish to propose another name. It is expected citizens will respond enthusiastically to this Indonesian Idol style of recruitment as it will be the first time they have been involved in Cabinet formation....

24 July 2014: I checked with a source who's a Jokowi supporter, who had this to say: "I am holding the jubilation at least until two things happen: i) Golkar crosses over from Prabowo side, giving Jokowi 2/3 majority in parliament thus he cannot be impeached. Currently, the parties backing Prabowo have threatened impeachment on the first few days in parliament* and b) Prabowo finally concedes." *refer to 11 July posting (below), Indonesia’s Parliament in a extraordinary session, amended the constitution. Referred to in the Indonesia media as the "Law on MD3", the next leader of Parliament will be chosen by MPs, rather than awarded to the party winning the most seats i.e. Jokowi's PDI-P....

9 July 6pm note: PDI-P and Megawati declared victory but no concession from Prabowo then.
It seems that big corporate donors sure made a big push Prabowo to win but Jokowi-JK prevailed and their lead grew. For plantations, Prabowo sounded more bullish on upstream and biodiesel topics. Jokowi has warned on special interests and those companies falling short on various issues of governance. But PDI-P is still rather nationalistic and we should expect differences; as seen elsewhere in the world. Our reader SK notes this: Now the question is who will be in the cabinet? Will Jokowi co-opt more competent bureaucrats from Demokrat? We might also wonder how will Jokowi'srelationship with Megawati and daughter-son evolve.

Exit polls: Jokowi-JK win 52.7% vs 47.2%. 9 July 2014 update, 4.15pm. Several polling organisations find for Jokowi-JK victory, 5.5%-age points ahead of the Prabowo team. This is ahead of the 3%-age point narrowing lead just before polling day.

POLLING DAY! 9 July 2014 update, 9am. Thanks to our reader SK, two negatives on Jokowi's campaign - apparent campaign planning and excecution problems in PDI-P and an alleged TNI program... Exit polls in foreign voting show strong support for Jokowi... For those interested in policy directions, UOBKH Research, 8 July on final debate: The final round of the presidential debate was a heated one with Jokowi-Kalla on the attack. Kalla raised the issue of Newmont divestment, graft regarding the people surrounding Prabowo and conditional coalition offered by Prabowo. Jokowi also attacked his rival’s promises and questioned how they would ever realise those plans....
 

7 July 2014 update: News and view on the 5th and final Presidential Debate on Food Security, Energy, Environmental Issues. Also, interesting to note that Jakarta Globe wonders about a situation of "no clear winner" of the election, worries about TNI (armed forces) role and which are the key swing voting regions.....

 

4 July 2014 update: Interview #2 Presidential race heats up, foreigners worry? In the last two weeks, I've been in touch with six (6) people who represent large business interests in Indonesia including in palm oil (domestic and international owners) and three (3) Malaysians who work and/or are invested in Indonesia palm oil.  Khor Reports notes on key Indonesia-Malaysia plantation topics.

 

17 June 2014 - One survey shows  Prabowo-Hatta surpassing Jokowi-Kalla who have been on a narrowing trend. Indonesia surveys were off base when some earlier expected a solid Jokowi-PDIP win in the legislative elections. Sample size was not terribly big for this one and some say that Indonesia voters can change their minds with a large 40% proportion as undecided in other surveys.
I'm also hearing on Indonesia sources that many civil servants are not be terribly keen on Jokowi given his public "shaming" of Jakarta bureaucrats. Thus, they tend to be Prabowo supporters.

9 June's Update 2 is for Jokowi sugar mill update plan.
Khor Reports comment: We've been keeping an eye on this and expected increasing economic nationalism once Jokowi failed to get a large majority in the earlier polls. A plantation expansion moratorium for large companies is in regulations with a 100,000 hectare cap to be implemented but still subject to negotiation on the finer details. One way to lift this ceiling is to be publicly listed in Indonesia - but there is uncertainty as to the public float expected. This situation has not been tested, but we suspect that a significant public float[1] may find favour with Indonesia's economic and financial sector development policies..................

Click on this link for more: Indonesia presidential race (various updates):

http://khorreports-palmoil.blogspot.com/2014/06/indonesia-presendial-race.html

  

 

 

Indonesia policy platform - crucial key text for business investors

 Advert: Indonesia policy platform - crucial key text for business investors. Do you need to better understand the policy platform of the incoming Indonesia Jokowi-JK administration?

• Secondary sources and analysis are important and handy but they can inject bias. Their often limited coverage may also miss nuance and overall perspective. In the course of our own research and analysis on Indonesia policy ideas for the next 10 years (assume two terms) we have encountered big gaps and tonal differences in regular sources and even more so against the original policy text. We were surprised at the differences and you may be too. Although campaign policy ideas may shift, it is important to understand the platform of the incoming presidency as policy ideas invariably reappear.
• Businesses investing and trading with Indonesia will crucially benefit from access to primary Bahasa policy sources presented in English. Since we did a translation of the policy manifesto (and it's proven pretty tough to find one done), we thought to disseminate it to others who may need it at a reasonable fee.
• You get:  i) a full English translation of the Jokowi-JK "visi misi / vision mission" policy platform (original version, 41 pages in Bahasa) and ii) for the first ten early birds, a free supplement : upcoming review (release date to set) of priority Jokowi-JK policy items from the 5 Presidential Debates and statements from Jokowi-JK and key advisors during the early transition period.
• Sectors that will find this of interest include: financial, oil & gas, green energy and technology, logistics and infrastructure, agricultural supply chains, mining, forestry, rural development and more.
• Please contact Deborah at deborah.segienam[at]gmail.com for orders and info.

Sovereign wealth funds (SWF) - GIC, Temasek, Khazanah

3 August 2014: Singapore GIC and Temasek  returns, Khazanah-Temasek tie-up on Iskandar Malaysia

GIC Has 4.1% Annualized Return, Warns of Lower Asset Gains  By Klaus Wille and Joyce Koh  Aug 2, 2014 10:23 AM GMT+0800; "GIC Pte, manager of more than $100 billion of Singapore’s reserves, posted an annualized return of 4.1 percent and warned that the current high prices in financial markets signal a challenging outlook.... GIC’s 20-year annualized real rate of return, or increases on top of global inflation it uses as its main metric, as of March 31 compared with 4 percent the previous year, the fund said in the annual report published today. The sovereign fund declined to elaborate on specific holdings.... The MSCI World Index, which tracks stocks in 23 developed countries, gained 17 percent during the period, the most in four years, as central banks worldwide kept interest rates low to fuel growth. Citigroup Inc. (C), of which GIC owns 3.7 percent according to data compiled by Bloomberg, gained 7.6 percent in the period. Switzerland’s biggest bank, UBS AG (UBSN), in which GIC is the biggest owner with 6.4 percent, rallied 26 percent.... GIC is more “positive” on emerging-market assets going forward, Lim said, citing valuations and progress in reforms in countries including China, India, Indonesia and Mexico...." http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-01/gic-has-4-1-annualized-return-warns-future-growth-challenging.html

Temasek’s Portfolio Gains Include $4 Billion From Government By Klaus Wille  Jul 10, 2014 3:02 PM GMT+0800; "Temasek Holdings Pte’s performance was helped by a S$5 billion ($4 billion) capital injection from Singapore’s Ministry of Finance, according to the state-owned investment firm’s annual report.... Temasek’s portfolio rose by S$8 billion to S$223 billion as of March 31, the company said in its review on July 8. The gain included the funds from the ministry, its only shareholder, “as part of their asset allocation decision,” it said.... The total shareholder return of Temasek, which includes dividends and capital gains and excludes capital injections, shrunk to 1.5 percent for the past year from 8.9 percent in its previous fiscal year, as holdings in Asia remained little changed. The funds from the ministry boosted its portfolio gain to 3.7 percent, according to data in the annual report..... The additional capital came from government funds, including proceeds from tradable Singapore Government Securities, any government surpluses as well as proceeds from land sales, the ministry said in an e-mailed statement.... Singapore’s government had injected S$10 billion in cash in 2007, the largest since Temasek’s inception in 1974, the ministry said in August 2008.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-10/temasek-s-portfolio-gains-include-4-billion-from-government.html

Singapore Set to Get LNG Cargo From Indonesia for Third Tank By Chou Hui Hong  Jul 28, 2014 7:46 AM GMT+0800; "Singapore LNG Corp., which operates the Asian city-state’s first receiving terminal, is set to get a liquefied natural gas cargo for its third tank delivered today by the vessel Wilpride.... “We confirm that the Singapore LNG Terminal will be receiving a cargo of LNG that is not intended for import into Singapore,” SLNG’s spokesman Simon Ang said in an e-mailed statement yesterday. Ang declined to give further details of the cargo, citing reasons of commercial confidentiality.... SLNG’s Jurong Island facility in western Singapore has three tanks that can handle 6 million metric tons a year. A fourth will be added by 2017, increasing capacity to 9 million tons. The company may make the third tank available for traders to carry out short-term transactions, SLNG’s chief executive John Ng said in an interview at his office March 20.... Temasek Holdings, Singapore’s state-owned investment company, set up Pavilion Energy in April last year. Pavilion Gas concluded its first spot LNG deal earlier this year...."
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-27/singapore-set-to-get-lng-cargo-from-indonesia-for-third-tank.html

Cut-Price Luxury Homes Fuel Singapore Tri-Nation Sprawl   By Sharon Chen Jun 9, 2014 9:20 AM GMT+0800; "Darren Chin gave up a 15-minute train journey to his office in Singapore for a two-hour drive with a stop at passport control. The reason: By commuting from Malaysia, he can afford his own two-story home and car. “It’s worth it,” said the Malaysian financial adviser, who leaves his house before 6:45 a.m. to get to his job at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. (OCBC) on time. “I’m saving on rent and I’m paying for my own house.”... Chin is part of the expansion of Southeast Asia’s richest city across its borders as residents and companies seek property, labor and amenities, often at half the cost or less. The result is a three-nation urban complex with a population bigger than London and an economy that would rank as one of the fastest-growing in the region...." http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-06-09/cut-price-luxury-homes-fuel-singapore-sprawl-cities-correct-.html