Malaysia: Political economy of FELDA and South Johor & GE-13 voting behaviour

 

THE POLITICAL TUSSLE OVER FELDA LAND
SCHEMES – UMNO STRENGTHENS ITS
MALAY RURAL FORTRESS IN GE13

Research done mid-2013, paper to

be published in Kajian Malaysia in 2014

The importance of Felda

• This paper is about the political economy of FELDA and its important place in

the electoral politics of the 13th General Election held on 5 May 2013. In a

heavily contested election, the ruling coalition, Barisan Nasional has held on to

power by winning by a 22-seat majority, despite its worst performance with

the loss of the national popular vote and questions about irregularities.

• However, the hope of Pakatan Rakyat, the opposition coalition, to make

inroads in BN’s proverbial FELDA “fortress” vote bank was disappointed.

Instead, there were swings toward BN.

• Winning FELDA areas is important to building up its rural base, in order to win

enough seats to govern. In the midst of urban rejection, UMNO has retained

stronger control in key rural areas, turfing out and keeping out the opposition

coalition from its FELDA stronghold, with Mazlan Aliman of PAS reporting on

the difficulties of reaching FELDA women voters and in allaying rural voter

fears about DAP Chinese rule.

 

Felda issues & voting

• In FELDA settlement areas the ruling coalition is seen to have preferential access

by way of its links with FELDA’s administration. The windfall from the FELDA

Global public listing seems to have been an important boon.

• However, there are interesting regional differences, notably between Pahang and

Johore. Here, the parallels between oil palm replanting economic decision making

and voting behaviour of FELDA settlers is intriguing.

• Efforts to lure the FELDA youth vote seems to have been flummoxed with socalled

money politics, including the offer of new lands for homes for younger

voters.

• At the same time, UMNO-BN may want to repeat its FELDA electoral success by

performing IPO “encores” to generate financial bonuses with two other key land

development agencies – FELCRA and RISDA. Combined with FELDA, these three

agencies may have control and influence of up to 19% of Malaysia’s voters.

 

 

THE POLITICS OF JOHOR-SINGAPORE
INTEGRATION: Malaysian stakeholders
contest within a pro-development
continuum in Johor GE-13

Research done end-2013, paper to

be published as chapter in a book by ISEAS in 2014/2015

 

Johor voting in GE13 – a looking glass world

• The Opposition coalition sought to make significant gains against the

Barisan Nasional coalition in its stronghold of Johor, but the Chinese

18.3% swing against Barisan Nasional is associated with a 1.9%

increased Malay vote for it. Racial and religious issues were

apparently dominant. Johor Malays and Chinese voted in an

ethnically divided manner. Future contests will be for the Malay vote.

On economic issues such as Iskandar Malaysia, the benefits to the

Johor Malay population (especially its below-40 voters) is likely to be

in sharper focus in future political contestation.

 

It’s all about the Malay vote• Thus, former ‘safe-deposit’ states for BN, such as Johor and Sabah are

now considered as the front-line for the next general election.

• The contest will be for the Malay vote. Will the Malay vote be

contested mostly on economic or non-economic issues?

• On economic projects such as Iskandar Malaysia, the benefits to the

Johor Malay population (especially its below-40 voters) is likely to be

in sharper focus. If so, the rhetoric used by PAS in GE-13 and BN’s

post GE-13 policy reactions may be good indicators of future political

contestation over the grand project of Johor-Singapore integration

The above is extracted from my presentation material on the topics. Please contact me for more info.